Private credit maturity wall: what it means for investors
The private credit maturity wall is the build-up of loans that fall due within a few years and must be repaid or refinanced at about the same time. It is back in the conversation in 2026 because interest rates are rising and defaults are being measured more carefully. Here is what the latest data say, what they mean for a private investor looking at Spain, and which questions are worth asking before lending your money.
This text is for information only. It is not investment advice.
What the maturity wall means in private credit
A private loan usually pays interest during its life and returns the capital at the end (a bullet repayment). If many loans were made in the same period, many fall due in the same period. That is the “wall”.
The risk is not the date itself but what happens on that day. The borrower needs new money to repay the old money, and that depends on three things: whether the asset or the company holds its value, whether higher rates make refinancing too expensive, and whether lenders are willing to lend. This is refinancing risk.
Trends: what is happening worldwide and in Spain
- Worldwide, 8 October 2026: the Valuation Research Q3 2026 update reports that, according to KBRA, around 10% of its direct lending index matures in 2027, 17% in 2028 and 16% in 2029: close to 40% within three years.
- Worldwide, August 2026: the same report cites Fitch, which puts the private credit default rate at a record 6.3%. Maturity extensions account for 41% of those defaults. Other agencies measure lower: KBRA reports 2.5% by number of deals. The figures differ because each defines “default” differently.
- Worldwide and euro area, September 2026: the US Federal Reserve raised rates to a 3.75%-4.00% range, according to Valuation Research, and the ECB raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on 10 September. Refinancing costs more than it did a year ago.
- Spain, October 2026: the Observatory of Alternative Financing with Mortgage Collateral in Spain, with market analysis by PwC and the legal framework by Cuatrecasas, puts the average term of deals at 28 months (range 11 to 72) and the average loan-to-value (LTV) at 55%. It forecasts EUR 3,891 million of volume in 2026, 51% more than in 2025.
- Spain, 6 October 2026: SpainCap published a record 71 corporate private debt deals closed in 2025.
There is one important nuance. KBRA notes that 2026 maturities have fallen to 6% of borrowers because lenders, companies and the private equity sponsors that own them have agreed solutions. Those solutions are extensions, and an extension postpones the problem without guaranteeing it goes away.
What this means for a private investor in Spain: the wall is mainly a feature of US corporate debt, but the mechanics are the same in Spain. When several deals fall due together and credit gets more expensive, the exit of each deal matters more than the headline return.
The maturity wall in numbers
| Maturity year | Share of the index |
|---|---|
| 2027 | ≈ 10% |
| 2028 | ≈ 17% |
| 2029 | ≈ 16% |
These are US corporate loan data, not real-estate-backed debt in Spain. They help to understand the order of magnitude, not to transfer it to a different market.
Why a loan backed by real estate also faces its maturity
A loan secured on property has a real asset behind it. That helps, but it does not remove refinancing risk. In the Spanish market, deals last 28 months on average and are usually repaid at the end, through the sale of the property or new financing, often from a bank. We explain that model in bridge-to-term real estate financing and show the market figures in alternative mortgage lending in Spain.
Banks usually lend around 50-55% of value, according to the Observatory. If the value falls, the bank that was meant to refinance lends less. An example shows what happens.
Illustrative example: what happens if the property loses value before maturity
This is an illustrative, hypothetical example that does not reflect any Ondara transaction. A property valued at EUR 2,500,000 secures a loan of EUR 1,375,000 (55% LTV, the Observatory average). At maturity the borrower wants to refinance with a bank that lends up to 50% of value. Interest and costs are not included.
| Value scenario | Property value | LTV | Bank loan at 50% | Shortfall |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unchanged | EUR 2,500,000 | 55.0% | EUR 1,250,000 | EUR 125,000 |
| -10% | EUR 2,250,000 | 61.1% | EUR 1,125,000 | EUR 250,000 |
| -20% | EUR 2,000,000 | 68.8% | EUR 1,000,000 | EUR 375,000 |
| -30% | EUR 1,750,000 | 78.6% | EUR 875,000 | EUR 500,000 |
The gap has to come from somewhere else: the borrower’s own funds, other debt or the sale of the property. That is why the quality of the exit plan weighs as much as the starting LTV. It is also why it helps to understand PIK interest and extensions, which delay cash payments.
How Ondara Group works
Ondara Group is an alternative investment manager based in Barcelona, active since 2018. We structure private debt transactions secured on real estate, analyse each one individually, including its exit plan, and work with real assets as collateral. Investors deal directly with the management team and the minimum investment is EUR 25,000. You can get to know us at who we are. We aim for target double-digit returns, always as a target and never guaranteed.
Risks to consider
All investments carry risk, including partial or total loss of capital. When maturities are concentrated, there are further risks:
- Refinancing risk: the borrower may not find new financing at an affordable cost.
- Extensions and payment in kind: they postpone the problem and can hide a deteriorating deal.
- Illiquidity and term: capital is tied up and the term may be extended.
- Valuation risk: if the property loses value, the collateral covers less. Collateral mitigates risk but does not eliminate it.
- Data risk: market figures are third-party estimates and may be revised.
Frequently asked questions
What is the maturity wall?
It is the period in which a large share of debt falls due and has to be repaid or refinanced at almost the same time.
When does the private credit wall fall due?
According to KBRA, cited by Valuation Research, around 10% of the direct lending index matures in 2027, 17% in 2028 and 16% in 2029. These are US data and may change.
Is an extension always a bad sign?
Not always. It can be a reasonable solution, but Fitch counts maturity extensions among defaults, so it is worth asking why one is granted.
Does it affect real-estate-backed debt in Spain?
Yes, in a different way. With average terms of 28 months, the exit by sale or refinancing decides the outcome.
What should I check before investing?
The exit plan, the LTV, the value of the collateral, the term and the borrower’s track record. Analyse each opportunity with a professional before investing.
In summary
- The maturity wall concentrates repayments and refinancings in a few years.
- According to KBRA, close to 40% of US direct lending matures between 2027 and 2029.
- With rates rising, refinancing costs more and extensions gain weight.
- In real estate debt, the value of the asset and the exit plan decide whether a loan is repaid on time.
If you would like to know how we invest, register as an investor and we will explain how it works. The minimum investment is EUR 25,000.
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation or financial advice. All investments carry risks, including the possible loss of the capital invested, and past or target returns do not guarantee future returns. Analyse each opportunity with a professional before investing.
