{"id":4966,"date":"2026-10-30T01:55:18","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T00:55:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/ecb-holds-rates-october-2026\/"},"modified":"2026-10-30T01:55:18","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T00:55:18","slug":"ecb-holds-rates-october-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/ecb-holds-rates-october-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB Holds Rates at 2.50%: What It Means for Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>On 29 October 2026 the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged, with the deposit facility at 2.50%, but it kept the door open to further increases.<\/strong> For an investor with savings in Spain, the pause changes little: inflation is still above what bank deposits pay, and the cost of money remains high.<\/p>\n<p>This text is for information only. It is not investment advice.<\/p>\n<h2>What the ECB decided on 29 October 2026<\/h2>\n<p>The Governing Council held all three key rates: the deposit facility at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility at 2.90%. The official statement says energy prices have kept rising, which raises the risks to inflation and weighs on growth, and that financing conditions have tightened since the previous meeting.<\/p>\n<p>The ECB also says it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path: it will decide meeting by meeting on the data. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eunews.it\/en\/2026\/10\/29\/the-ecb-leaves-interest-rates-unchanged-but-high-energy-prices-and-financing-conditions-are-casting-a-shadow-over-the-future\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Eunews<\/a>, a rate rise was discussed and the Council unanimously chose to wait. The next meeting is in December.<\/p>\n<div class=\"tabla-seo\">\n<table>\n<caption>Source: ECB (key interest rates), October 2026<\/caption>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>In effect from<\/th>\n<th>Deposit facility<\/th>\n<th>Main refinancing operations<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>11 June 2025<\/td>\n<td>2.00%<\/td>\n<td>2.15%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>17 June 2026<\/td>\n<td>2.25%<\/td>\n<td>2.40%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>16 September 2026<\/td>\n<td>2.50%<\/td>\n<td>2.65%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>29 October 2026<\/td>\n<td>Unchanged (2.50%)<\/td>\n<td>Unchanged (2.65%)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Trends: what is happening worldwide and in Spain<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Euro area, 29 October 2026.<\/strong> The ECB holds rates, warns that the energy shock will push inflation up and leaves a future rise open. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/pr\/date\/2026\/html\/ecb.mp261029~9a493adf17.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ECB, monetary policy decisions, 29 October 2026<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Euro area, September 2026.<\/strong> According to Eunews, inflation rose to 3.8% from 3.2% in August, with energy inflation at 18.9% year on year. This figure should be checked against the official Eurostat release.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Spain, 14 October 2026.<\/strong> Spain&#8217;s statistics office (INE) reported September consumer price inflation (CPI) at 4.9% year on year, six tenths above August, with core inflation at 3.1%. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ine.es\/dyngs\/Prensa\/IPC0926.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">INE, CPI September 2026<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Market, 28 October 2026.<\/strong> The 12-month Euribor stood at 3.29%, about 0.79 points above the deposit facility, and according to that site the market had already priced in the decision. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/euribor-rates.info\/en\/ecb-interest-rates\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">euribor-rates.info<\/a>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What this means for an individual investor in Spain:<\/strong> with Spanish inflation at 4.9% and the official rate at 2.50%, savings that earn less than prices rise lose purchasing power. At the same time, high rates make financing more expensive for companies and developers, which can increase demand for private credit and also the risk of default. For related context, see our note on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/spain-mortgages-august-2026-ine-investor\/\">Spanish mortgage rates in August 2026<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Real return: why the pause does not solve the savings problem<\/h2>\n<p>Real return is what is left after deducting inflation. If a deposit earns less than prices rise, the balance grows in euros but buys less.<\/p>\n<p><img data-dominant-color=\"7e796e\" data-has-transparency=\"false\" style=\"--dominant-color: #7e796e;\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro.webp\" alt=\"Calculator and pen on paper to work out the real return on savings against inflation\" width=\"1680\" height=\"945\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4962 not-transparent\" loading=\"lazy\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro-200x113.webp 200w, https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro-300x169.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro-400x225.webp 400w, https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro-600x338.webp 600w, https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro-768x432.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro-800x450.webp 800w, https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro-1024x576.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro-1200x675.webp 1200w, https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro-1536x864.webp 1536w, https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/calculadora-inflacion-rentabilidad-real-ahorro.webp 1680w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1680px) 100vw, 1680px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>An illustrative and hypothetical example: EUR 100,000 over twelve months, with inflation at 4.9% for the whole year (a simplified assumption, not a forecast).<\/p>\n<div class=\"tabla-seo\">\n<table>\n<caption>Illustrative example prepared by Ondara Group, October 2026<\/caption>\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th>Hypothetical nominal return<\/th>\n<th>Capital after 12 months<\/th>\n<th>Purchasing power (today&#8217;s euros)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>2.0%<\/td>\n<td>EUR 102,000<\/td>\n<td>EUR 97,235<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>3.0%<\/td>\n<td>EUR 103,000<\/td>\n<td>EUR 98,189<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>4.0%<\/td>\n<td>EUR 104,000<\/td>\n<td>EUR 99,142<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>Even with a hypothetical 4% nominal return, purchasing power falls in this scenario. Inflation may ease, as the ECB itself expects over the medium term, but nobody can say when.<\/p>\n<h2>What changes for private debt backed by real estate<\/h2>\n<p>High rates work in two directions. On one hand, banks restrict credit and part of the demand moves to alternative financing. On the other, borrowers pay more interest and their ability to repay is squeezed. Our recent notes on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/direct-lending-europe-2026\/\">direct lending in Europe<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/private-credit-maturity-wall\/\">private credit maturity wall<\/a> look at each side.<\/p>\n<p>How the rate is set in each deal also matters. On floating-rate debt the coupon moves with Euribor; on fixed-rate debt it does not. Each formula shares risk differently.<\/p>\n<h2>Risks to consider<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Default risk:<\/strong> higher rates and costlier energy reduce the margin of companies and developers. See also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/hidden-defaults-private-credit-moodys\/\">hidden defaults in private credit<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Valuation risk:<\/strong> the value of the property held as collateral can fall if credit becomes more expensive.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Illiquidity and term:<\/strong> these investments cannot be sold immediately and timelines can lengthen.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Interest rate risk:<\/strong> if rates change direction, the relative appeal of each alternative changes.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Loss of capital:<\/strong> all investment carries risk, including partial or total loss of capital. Real estate collateral mitigates risk but does not remove it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>How Ondara Group works<\/h2>\n<p>Since 2018, Ondara Group, based in Barcelona, has structured private debt transactions backed by real estate and distressed asset deals. We analyse each transaction individually, with real properties as collateral, we seek diversification and we keep direct contact with the management team. The minimum investment is EUR 25,000. You can meet the team on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/who-we-are\/\">who we are<\/a> and see the group&#8217;s companies on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/brands\/\">our brands<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>We do not offer guaranteed returns: every figure is a target and may not be achieved.<\/p>\n<h2>Frequently asked questions<\/h2>\n<h3>What interest rates does the ECB have after October 2026?<\/h3>\n<p>The deposit facility is at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility at 2.90%.<\/p>\n<h3>Will the ECB raise rates in December?<\/h3>\n<p>That cannot be known. The ECB says it will decide meeting by meeting on the data and is not pre-committing to a path.<\/p>\n<h3>How does the ECB pause affect Euribor?<\/h3>\n<p>Euribor had already reflected the decision. On 28 October 2026 the 12-month Euribor was 3.29%, according to euribor-rates.info.<\/p>\n<h3>What is real return?<\/h3>\n<p>It is the nominal return minus inflation. If inflation is higher than what savings earn, purchasing power falls.<\/p>\n<h3>Can you lose money investing in private debt?<\/h3>\n<p>Yes. There can be defaults, delays and falls in the value of the collateral, and part or all of the capital can be lost.<\/p>\n<h2>In summary<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The ECB held rates on 29 October 2026 (deposit rate at 2.50%) and does not rule out increases.<\/li>\n<li>Spanish CPI inflation was 4.9% in September, according to INE, above what deposits pay.<\/li>\n<li>With high inflation, real return can be negative even if the nominal balance rises.<\/li>\n<li>High rates move demand towards alternative financing, but also raise default risk.<\/li>\n<li>All investment carries risk of capital loss and illiquidity.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>If you would like to know how we invest, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/investors\/\">register as an investor<\/a><\/strong> and we will explain how it works. The minimum investment is EUR 25,000.<\/p>\n<p><em>This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation or financial advice. All investments carry risks, including the possible loss of the capital invested, and past or target returns do not guarantee future returns. Analyse each opportunity with a professional before investing.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The ECB holds rates at 2.50% and does not rule out a rise. What it means with Spanish CPI at 4.9% for savings and real-estate-backed private debt for investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4959,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4966","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-inversiones-alterativas","category-private-credit"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4966","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4966"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4966\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4959"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4966"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4966"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ondara.group\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4966"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}